The stock market is an idiot

Yesterday the NYSE broke 9,000 and huzzahs and hosannas rang through the land. Redemption was at hand and all was right with the world. This was a sure sign the economy was recovering.

"What I like about the rally that we’ve seen so far is the breadth of it. It’s not really confined to a single sector. It’s broadly spread. That gives me confidence," said John Coyne, president of Philadelphia-based Brinker Capital, with $8 billion under management. "It’s been a wonderful run-up here. It’s certainly helping to restore investor confidence, given the trauma that people went through."

This all came about because of better earnings by Goldman Sachs, Ford and and the great good news that sales of previously owned homes rose 3.6 percent in June, the third consecutive monthly improvement! Never mind that Goldman’s money is based on accounting tricks and a fixed game or that the sale of homes is up because the price of homes is falling faster than Alan Greenspan’s reputation. It’s all good.

(Also never mind that UPS reported disappointing second-quarter earnings and doesn’t expect business to pick up over the next few months. Now that, ladies and gentlemen, is a reliable economic indicator.)

PAY ATTENTION:

THE STOCK MARKET AT 9,000
IS NO SMARTER THAN IT WAS AT 13,000.

There is a continuing and unfounded belief that stock markets somehow reflect reality. They don’t. They reflect the psychology of investors – whether individual or institutional. It is not a picture of what is but of what investors think will be. The Dow at 13,000 reflected nothing but the fact that too many people believed US housing prices could only move in one direction. Conversely, The Dow at 6,450 reflected people’s belief that our banking system was dead in the water.

I believe the current market numbers reflect mass denial. Denial that the US is populated by zombie banks, denial that unemployment is in double digits, denial that these profits have come because of slashed expenses – which is hardly sustainable. The rise in the Dow and other markets is more a reflection of wishful thinking and short-term profit-grabbing than it is anything else.

It could be that the above paragraph is wrong. Maybe recovery is upon us and the billions of dollars lost by banks and people in the meltdown do not need to be accounted for. Even if I am wrong about my assumptions and outlook I am right about this: The markets are no better at augury than the Romans were who relied on the flight of birds or examining the livers of sheep. If they were then we would never have crashes.

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