Cut the bull and call it a Depression already

More of my happy thoughts from over at BlownMortgage:

Two weeks ago the National Bureau of Economic Research officially confirmed what we already knew: We have been in a recession for the past year. This begs the question, how long until we declare World Depression II?

The (disputed) technical definitions of Recession and Depression make them lagging economic nomenclature. Economists debate whether we are in a swamp while everyone else worries about the ever-increasing number of alligators. The lack of an official declaration of recession mostly just gives the chattering classes something to do while avoiding taking action.

“Is it a crisis?”

“There is no crisis!”

“Is there a large, green creature eating my leg?”

“There is no large, green creature eating your leg!”

Allow me to go out on a very, very sturdy limb and declare a Depression. The economy isn’t going to recover by the end of next year. There is a only a dim possibility it will recover the year after that. But no one in an “official” position is willing to be the bearer of that piece of bad news.

Doubt that it is (or soon will fit the technical definition of) a Depression? Look at the actual numbers…

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HUZZAH!!! Recession declared! (and backdated!)

With the horses so long out of the barn that they are now baseballs and glue, officials have decided to nail the barn door shut and call it a recession. “The U.S. economy entered a recession in December 2007, a committee of economists at the private National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday.” The official declaration comes a mere EIGHT MONTHS after even most economists were saying this was the case. Of course it is also a mere EIGHT MONTHS after the Anderson Forecast from UCLA predicted we would avoid a recession.

“We don’t see that happening,” said Edward Leamer, director and co-author of the forecast released Tuesday [March 10]. “This is a tough call, but I will be very surprised if this thing actually precipitates into recession.”

Waiter, I’d like some of what he’s smoking…

What has me worried is all the official assurances that it will never turn into a depression.